Satellite images of Iran nuclear site raise concern

Dubai, United Arab Emirates — Iran has begun construction at its Natanz nuclear facility, newly-released satellite images show. The images were made public as the U.N. nuclear agency acknowledged Tehran is building an underground advanced centrifuge assembly plant after its last one exploded in a reported sabotage attack last summer.

The construction is also happening as the U.S. nears Election Day in a campaign pitting President Trump, whose maximum pressure campaign against Iran has led Tehran to abandon all limits on its nuclear program, and Joe Biden, who has expressed a willingness to return to the nuclear accord with Iran that the Trump administration abandoned.

The election’s outcome likely will determine which approach America takes. Heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. nearly ignited a war at the start of the year.

Since August, Iran has built a new or regraded road to the south of Natanz toward what analysts believe is a former firing range for security forces at the enrichment facility, images from San Francisco-based Planet Labs show. A new satellite image shows the site cleared away with what appears to be construction equipment there.

October 26, 2020, satellite image from Planet Labs Inc. that has been annotated by experts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Middlebury Institute of International Studies shows construction at Iran’s Natanz uranium-enrichment facility that experts believe may be a new, underground centrifuge assembly plant. Satellite photos show Iran has begun construction at its Natanz nuclear facility. That’s after the head of the U.N.’s nuclear agency acknowledged Tehran is building an underground advanced centrifuge assembly plant after its last one exploded in a reported sabotage attack last summer.

Planet Labs Inc. via AP

Analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies say they believe the site is undergoing excavation.

“That road also goes into the mountains so it may be the fact that they’re digging some kind of structure that’s going to be out in front and that there’s going to be a tunnel in the mountains,” said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the institute who studies Iran’s nuclear program. “Or maybe that they’re just going to bury it there.”

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, last month told state television the destroyed above-ground facility was being replaced with one “in the heart of the mountains around Natanz.”

Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that his inspectors were aware of the construction. He said Iran had previously informed IAEA inspectors, who continue to have access to Iran’s sites despite the collapse of the nuclear deal.

“It means that they have started, but it’s not completed. It’s a long process,” Grossi said.

Photo released on July 2, 2020 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows a building after it was damaged by a fire at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, some 200 miles south of the Tehran. Iran confirmed that the damaged building at the underground Natanz nuclear site was a new centrifuge assembly center, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

Mr. Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, in which Tehran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. When the U.S. ramped up sanctions, Iran gradually and publicly abandoned those limits as a series of escalating incidents pushed the two countries to the brink of war at the beginning of the year.

Iran now enriches uranium to up to 4.5% purity, and according to the last IAEA report, had a stockpile of 2.32 tons. Experts typically say 1.15 tons of low-enriched uranium is enough material to be re-enriched up to weapons-grade levels of 90% purity for one nuclear weapon.

Iran’s so-called “breakout time” – the time needed for it to build one nuclear weapon if it chose to – is estimated now to have dropped from one year under the deal to as little as three months. Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though Western countries fear Tehran could use it to pursue atomic weapons.

Natanz, built underground to harden it against airstrikes, long has been at the center of those fears since its discovery in 2002. Centrifuges there still spin in vast halls under 25 feet of concrete. Air defense positions surround the facility in Iran’s central Isfahan province.

Despite being one of the most-secure sites in Iran, Natanz was targeted by the Stuxnet computer virus – believed to be the creation of the U.S. and Israel – before the nuclear deal.

In July, a fire and explosion struck its advanced centrifuge assembly facility in an incident Iran later described as sabotage. Suspicion has fallen on Israel, despite a claim of responsibility by a previously unheard-of group.

There have been tensions with the IAEA and Iran even at Natanz, with Tehran accusing one inspector of testing positive for explosives last year. However, so far inspectors have been able to maintain their surveillance, something Lewis described as very important.

“As long as they declared to the IAEA in the proper time frame, there’s no prohibition on putting things underground,” he said. “For me, the real red line would be if the Iranians started to stonewall the IAEA.”

For now, it remains unclear how deep Iran will put this new facility. And while the sabotage will delay Iran in assembling new centrifuges, Lewis warned the program ultimately would regroup as it had before and continue accumulating ever-more material beyond the scope of the abandoned nuclear deal.

“We buy ourselves a few months,” he said. “But what good is a few months if we don’t know what we’re going to use it for?”